Дивергенция в трейдинге: что это такое, отличия от конвергенции 109
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При обнаружении подобной ситуации трейдеру следует выбрать дальнейшую стратегию для планируемых и открытых сделок. О классическом расхождении мы начали говорить в начале статьи. Оно встречается чаще остальных и ознаменует смену направления тренда. Чтобы дать вам полную информацию, отметим важный момент.
Умение распознать дивергенцию помогает определить силу и точку разворота тренда. Этот навык понадобится в среднесрочном трейдинге и свинг-трейдинге. Как дополнительный инструмент, чтение дивергенций пригодится скальперам. Помимо случаев с ложными дивергенциями, трейдер может неправильно интерпретировать действительную дивергенцию. Поэтому стоит учитывать показания других индикаторов и перепроверять сигналы на нескольких близких таймфреймах.
Это и есть расхождение, называемое в трейдинге дивергенцией. Оно происходит от латинского “divergere”, что означает “обнаруживать расхождение”.
Под цифрой 2 обозначен пробой локального минимума , который теперь стал для нас предыдущим. Таким образом, самой простой стратегией при медвежьей дивергенции является открытие короткой позиции. Это бычья обычная дивергенция, предполагающая, что на рынке можно ожидать разворот вверх.
- Включайте всегда мини паранойю, пытаясь дать себе ответ.
- Скрытая бычья дивергенция возникает тогда, когда график цены (рынок), двигаясь вверх, вырисовывает более высокие минимумы.
- В самом принципе этого явления заложена механика рынка, а именно баланс покупателей и продавцов.
- Когда цена обновила максимум, проверьте, сделал ли осциллятор тоже самое.
Таким образом получается, что бумага еще какое-то время растет, но вот либо объемов не хватает для подтверждения такой динамики, либо индикаторы это подтвердят. Упрощенно принято называть это расхождением, что в целом и отображает саму суть, поэтому углубляться уже не будем. Помимо дивергенции еще существует конвергенция, но в трейдерском сообществе этот термин не прижился, и в основном все называют это дивергенцией. Хотя сама по себе конвергенция подразумевает уже не расхождение, а схождение. Но все же, основную свою суть доносит и понятие дивергенции, на примерах сейчас это все разберем, и поймете сами.
Дивергенция в трейдинге. Торгуем на Форекс с умом
Там у нас формируется новый более низкий максимум. Таким образом, на индикаторе мы не увидим двойную вершину. Показано, что на графике индикатора тоже формируются две вершины – однако вторая находится значительно ниже первой. Таким образом у нас в распоряжении факт формирования дивергенции.
Для определения дивергенции достаточно одного проверенного осциллятора. Это опережающий индикатор, составляющий прогнозы на основе анализа средних значений за разные временные промежутки, поэтому его предсказания отличаются высокой точностью. Двойная дивергенция возникает, когда формируется серия из нескольких ценовых максимумов (или более низких минимумов), в то время как индикатор печатает более низкие максимумы.
В момент своего разворота рынок, как правило, достигает своего пика и дает нам знать о том, что он уже не имеет той силы, необходимой для продолжения своего движения в том же направлении. Обнаружена скрытая «бычья» дивергенция – второй https://forexinstruments.com/ минимум на графике выше, чем первый, первый минимум осциллятора выше, чем второй. Позиция на покупку открывается сразу же после обнаружения дивергенции. Синим графиком у нас отображается динамика цены, а красным – индикатор.
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Ну а мы не спешили и ждали дополнительных подтверждений дивергенции. Достаточно сильных, что указывали бы на разворот такого тренда. Банальная линия тренда показала бы, что тренд — устойчиво нисходящий и входить на его разворот пока что рано.
Тем не менее, иногда случаются достаточно интересные ситуации на рынке, когда складываются многие факторы, и вполне удачно можно поймать разворот в той или иной бумаге. При этом прибыль, которая выходит в таких сделках, может давать просто огромную значения. С точки зрения мани менеджмента куда логичнее торговать направленно в сторону тренда, чем пытаться ловить развороты.
Рекомендуем начинающим трейдерам ознакомиться с нашим бесплатным курсом скальпинга. Также вы можете использовать наши бесплатные сигналы и анализировать торговую историю в Дневнике трейдера. Как и дивергенция, конвергенцию ищут в связке «график плюс индикатор».
На скриншоте выше цена демонстрирует обновление нижних максимумов, а стохастик — верхних максимумов. Перед нами классическая медвежья дивергенция, все указания на Put. Цена и ее «моментум» (темп движения) обычно идут рука об руку, эдакие Бэтмен и Робин, сладкая парочка. Когда цена достигает максимального значения — его должен достичь и осциллятор.
Скрытая Дивергенция
Посмотрим пример дивергенции, которая образовалась недавно в бумагах Сбербанка. Эти модели у меня достаточно хорошо формализованы, но сегодня разберем немного другой индикатор. Я думаю для многих эту тема будет полезна, поскольку все торгует по своему, и возможно каждый для себя сможет подчеркнуть что-то интересное из этого.
Не то чтобы она сильно секретная — просто такая дивергенция прячется внутри тренда. В данном смысле особенно “благоприятно” влияет публикация важных экономических и политических новостей в момент пробоя ценового тренда. Как видите, цена осталась на одних и Как написать торгового робота ITinvest на vc ru тех же максимумах, в итоге имеем двойную вершину. Однако индикатор сформировал второй низкий максимум. Наличие первого типа говорит нам о том, цена и дальше стремится вниз. Соответственно, в том или ином случае трейдеру необходимо открывать лонг либо шорт.
Примеры конвергенции в трейдинге
Наличие зелёных кластеров, свидетельствующих о рыночных покупках, в связке с медвежьей динамикой цены, как реакцией на покупки, предполагает, что мы имеем дело с покупками “слабых игроков”. И/или с активацией стоп-лоссов продавцов, установленных выше уровня 1830. Это признак того, что важные игроки в курсе реальных медвежьих настроений и предусмотрительно занимают короткие позиции. На картинке ниже – график фьючерса на золото, дневной таймфрейм.
Явные дивергенции – более надежные сигналы, возможный отскок сильнее в пунктах. Небольшое расхождение сигнализирует о меньшем отскоке. В этой ситуации экстремумы на графике одинаковые или очень близкие. Если два максимума на графике равны, а второй максимум индикатора ниже первого – это медвежий сигнал. Если два минимума на графике равны, а минимумы индикатора растут – это бычий сигнал.
В широком смысле – обозначение ситуации, где величина или объект движутся в разном направлении с другой величиной или объектом. Помимо математики, понятие используется в статистике, экономике, биологии и на бытовом уровне. Практиковаться в обнаружении расхождений, не рискуя средствами. Можно использовать для этих целей демо-счета, или следить за графиками, даже когда вы не принимаете участие в движении рынка. Если у вас нет дополнительных данных, не спешите принимать крупные финансовые решения, полагаясь на одну только дивергенцию. Выжидайте момента, пока позиция выйдет на уровень поддержки или сопротивления.
Цена сделав волну роста и скорректировавшись пошла на новый рост, следующая волна цены выше а волна гистограммы ниже, вот это и есть расхождение . При этом гистограмма нулевую линию должна пробивать между волнами роста что говорит о том что желающих развернуть немало а не просто замедление. Если вы затрудняетесь найти сигнальную свечу на линейных индикаторах типа RSI и стохастике, то сделайте их отображение в настройках терминала в виде гистограммы. Так же, в настройках, рекомендую обозначить разным цветом, как в моих примерах с MACD гистограммой.
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